Mudavadi's cobbling up of a third force hasn't been received with cheers from political rivals who perceive his candidacy as a threat. Analysts have also predicted that Mudavadi's entrance may create a run-off to determine Kenya's next President. But then, let us get real. Cord alliance is likely to suffer from this scenario. I have based my argument on the following premises; Mudavadi, hails from Western Kenya. It is a fact that he will shepherd the Luhya vote(third largest in population) to his side, a feat he is likely to achieve. The Luhyas, may disappoint Cord's point man in Western-Moses Wetang'ula because they will be poisoned by the siege mentality. They must have one of their own in state house. Such likelihood, will render Wetang'ula's presence in Cord irrelevant since he will not marshall the Luhya vote to rally behind Cord. Therefore, Western Kenya, home of Cord's presidential flag bearer will remain divided. Raila's full support will will only be isolated to the Luo Nyanza with Gusii vote still remaining to be a wild card.
Another big man in the Cord alliance Kalonzo Musyoka, may fail to bring in the desired numbers. With the presence of Charity Ngilu, the Kamba vote will remain divided.
Raila's popularity, yes, remains high. However, popularity in itself may not hand him the presidency. The pattern of voting in Kenya is based on the ethnic card, a card that has bee well played by the Jubilee alliance. For Raila to beat Uhuru, he should improvise a way to woo Mudavadi to his camp-in this case, during the run-off. Otherwise his chances still remain to be dim considering the fact that the Jubilee alliance has locked the Kikuyu vote, Kalenjin vote,and a section of the Northern Kenya vote. By getting real with issues, we will be discussing mature politic here. I am not in any way affiliated to Jubilee, in fact, i have a soft spot for Cord.
That is my analogy.
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