That Kenya will go into a presidential run-off after the March 4 poll is now inevitable. According to the latest opinion polls trends, two candidates are presumably the front runners in the race. Jubilee coalition flag bearer Uhuru Kenyatta, is set to settle old scores with Cord coalition candidate Raila Odinga, a rivalry dated back to their fathers.
However, what remains to be a conjecture is the post-poll period. Muted tension has gripped the country, perhaps due to the 2007 general election grim experience. During that period, violence erupted in different places after the incubent, outgoing president Mwai Kibaki, was declared winner by the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya Chairman Samuel Kivuitu and was hastily sworn in after the controversial announcement.
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Here is my hypothesis of what will likely happen after the March poll.
A Raila Odinga win will not be surrounded by controversies and tension. The Jubilee bandwagon will concede defeat immediately after the poll. The Jubilee duo-Ruto and Uhuru- will not wish to tarnish their images that they have worked so hard to reclaim. Besides, their pending cases at the Hague-based court will dominate their agenda list. Their young age will also make them easily concede defeat. Their age allows them to fight for another day.
However, a Uhuru win, will not augur well with the Cord battalion. A fleet of cases will pack the High Court and the Supreme Court that would be in place then. Activists will rush to court seeking an order to bar the duo from swearing in due to their Integrity. They shall use their pending charges at the ICC as their premises. Another group will go into court seeking for the nullification of the results because the duo will not be capable to lead the country as a result of their constant trips to the Hague.
As expected, the Supreme Court will throw out the cases and allow for the swearing in to continue as scheduled. That sounds like a recipe for violence.
And now a run-off-which i equate as the extra time footballing where a winner should be determined-will be done after intensive and heated campaign. The date in which the run-off will take place coincides with the date when the Jubilee duo will be expected to appear in court when their trials will be beginning. This works against the two considering that their rivals-most probably Cord- will use it as a campaigning tool.
