Amani Coalition Running-mate Conundrum

 Musalia Mudavadi has been tagged as an opportunist and someone who loves free things. This was clearly demonstrated in 2002/2012 when a carrot was dangled to him and without hesitation, he took a bite and later regretted on both occasions. Amani coalition, the auspices that he will use in the presidential race was hurriedly formed after his gentleman's agreement with Jubilee's Uhuru Kenyatta collapsed.
After entering into a coalition with Kanu, it was widely expected that he would announce Gideon Moi as his running mate. He played a wild card on this issue. He has since left the masses guessing on his next move.
Here is my hypothesis on Mudavadi's next move. His eyes are firmly focused on the nomination process, being an opportunist, he knows bigwigs will be floored in the nomination exercise. A case example, Oburu Odinga flooring James Orengo to book ticket for the Siaya gubernatorial race. Mudavadi expects to choose one of the strongest losers in the nomination for this reserved slot. His arithmetic is that he will not offer Eugene Wamalwa leader of majority, he doesnt want to create regional imbalance. Instead the slot is likely going for Gideon Moi whose political strength in the Rift Valley is low but banks on his father's superiority to get a following.
Methinks that the plan may backfire, his opportunism may flop. Political alliances are aware of strong losers in the nomination process. That is why already, as indicated by Jubilee and Cord, mechanisms are in place to ensure those who loose arent left in the cold. MUSALIA MUDAVADI, NAME YOUR RUNNING MATE AND FACE THE REST OF THE TEAMS LIKE A REAL MAN. And if you can't Raila Odinga has on several occasions asked you to join his bandwagon. Do that, you have a bright political future but your hurry will burn that ambition like bush fire. I rest my case.

Kenyan Politicians And Footballers Resemble

Politicians are like a national team, when they play for their respective clubs, they appear to be enemies attacking each other and hurling abuses at each other in the field of play. But when on national duty, they hug and celebrate a goal together.
When our politicians are in the public arena, they abuse and abuse each other,making us actually believe that they are enemies indeed.However, when seated in parliament they agree on issues such as salary increment and send-off packages. We, the fans, on the other hand can even go to an extent of comitting suicide once we hear our favourite team lost.
We can initiate violence because politician X has lost to politician Y. Yet, just like footballers we praise, they dont know that you even exist. We go ahead and butcher each other for holding different political ideologies. We are the fans at the terraces, we pay the gate fee(Taxes) to pay the players, yet the players(Politicians) can deceive us to fight each other unnecessarily.
As campaigns heat up, it is saddening to see Kenyans stooping so low to worship politicians because they want a token, a token stolen from the public coffers. Our youths should learn that the country we call Kenya can only exist if they resolve to peacefully vote and keep off from violent acts. One stone can turn into two and then thousands creating a massive loss of property and wealth. Our economy was crippled after the 2007 elections, because we resolved to engage in violent acts after our preferred candidates, who by the way, are now 'enemies', lost 'unfairly'. The normal lifestyle was paralysed, we went to the streets chanting the "Haki yetu" slogan.We forgot the brotherhood, we forgot our pride.
The same memories may be rekindled if we continue with this trend. We should guard our nation like an egg. Our nation is so fragile that it cannot afford to be hurled with even one single stone. Forget about politics. Take your voters card, elect a mature and responsible leader and go home and continue with your daily chores. These politicians' families live in mansions abroad. When we will start fighting and shedding blood, he will fly away and join his happy family in Australia while your torched makuti house remin stranded in the hills of Gusii or in the lowland of the Coastal region. Pray for peace and prosperity for our beloved country and let us choose peace. Use your voters card, not stones.

Why Kenyans Must Vote The Current MPs Out

The book of 2 Samuel 2:13 clearly demonstrates the character that embeds in our legislators’ minds. In this book of the old testament thus states; The rich man had a very large number of sheep and cattle, but the poor man had nothing except one little ewe lamb he had bought. He raised it, and it grew up with him and his children. It shared his food, drank from his cup and even slept in his arms. It was like a daughter to him. "Now a traveler came to the rich man, but the rich man refrained from taking one of his own sheep or cattle to prepare a meal for the traveler who had come to him. Instead, he took the ewe lamb that belonged to the poor man and prepared it for the one who had come to him." Davidburned with anger against the man and said to Nathan, "As surely as the LORD lives, the man who did this deserves to die! He must pay for that lamb four times over, because he did such a thing and had no pity."

It is a fact that the legislators live in high places, eating good food and driving Porsche cars when a simple taxpayer Kenyan is living in the slum and is not sure of the next meal. Apart from the hefty packages that will be drawn from the public coffers the members of parliament are also on a pension plan. It is draconian of the members of parliament to ignore the cry of Kenyans. And even as all this is taking place, a lot of questions remain unanswered; will those members who will retain their seats or get elected in other posts still be eligible for this send-off package? As a member of parliament of Othaya, will President Mwai Kibaki still get the send-off package apart from the one meant for the president? The same applies with the prime minister and his two deputies.

It is insatiable of the legislators to append themselves with the send-off packages when Kenyans are reeling in abject squalor. It is therefore prudent for president Mwai Kibaki to reject appending his signature on this dirty bill. If he does, then the smooth road of his legacy will be littered. Kenyans don’t forget mistakes no matter how an angel one has been.  And as this politicians criss-cross the country in their quest to remain in power, Kenyans should be made aware that the money that they will be given to act as bait is theirs.

The days when Kenyans could be lured by money to vote in a politician are long gone. Social media commentators and indeed the whole of social media have condemned the move by the legislatures to award themselves especially now that our economy is grappling with hardships.

Why Musalia Mudavadi's third force is likely to hurt Cord

Mudavadi's cobbling up of a third force hasn't been received with cheers from political rivals who perceive his candidacy as a threat. Analysts have also predicted that Mudavadi's entrance may create a run-off to determine Kenya's next President. But then, let us get real. Cord alliance is likely to suffer from this scenario. I have based my argument on the following premises; Mudavadi, hails from Western Kenya. It is a fact that he will shepherd the Luhya vote(third largest in population) to his side, a feat he is likely to achieve. The Luhyas, may disappoint Cord's point man in Western-Moses Wetang'ula because they will be poisoned by the siege mentality. They must have one of their own in state house. Such likelihood, will render Wetang'ula's presence in Cord irrelevant since he will not marshall the Luhya vote to rally behind Cord. Therefore, Western Kenya, home of Cord's presidential flag bearer will remain divided. Raila's full support will will only be isolated to the Luo Nyanza with Gusii vote still remaining to be a wild card.
Another big man in the Cord alliance Kalonzo Musyoka, may fail to bring in the desired numbers. With the presence of Charity Ngilu, the Kamba vote will remain divided.
Raila's popularity, yes, remains high. However, popularity in itself may not hand him the presidency. The pattern of voting in Kenya is based on the ethnic card, a card that has bee well played by the Jubilee alliance. For Raila to beat Uhuru, he should improvise a way to woo Mudavadi to his camp-in this case, during the run-off. Otherwise his chances still remain to be dim considering the fact that the Jubilee alliance has locked the Kikuyu vote, Kalenjin vote,and a section of the Northern Kenya vote. By getting real with issues, we will be discussing mature politic here. I am not in any way affiliated to Jubilee, in fact, i have a soft spot for Cord.
That is my analogy.

Let Us Get Real: Facing The Facts On The March Poll

 From my previous update on why Raila might lose in the March poll, i recieved overwhelming backlash from a rather perturbed section of the social media community. In their argument, the antagonists claimed that the Jubilee alliance will not ascend to power due to the yet-to-begin ICC trials. I find the argument not satisfactory. Once again, many were easily swayed from facing real issues affecting Kenyans. Today, we will debate on the impact of the ICC incase of Uhuru presidency. Those spreading unjustifiable propaganda that Kenya will face international economic sanctions if the Jubilee alliance forms the next government need to rethink again. It is even preposterous for us to compare Kenya with Sudan which has been declared to be a pariah state. Uhuru Kenyatta has made it clear that incase he wins the Presidency, he will coopertae with the ICC. The cooperation in itself will not chase away foreign investors, it will not cripple Kenya's economy. Bashir(Sudan) is having a hard time because he failed to coopertate with the ICC. The ICC issue is more than meets the eye. Did Ruto sponsor the violence that erupted in Kisumu? Did Uhuru sponsor the violence in Kibera? Or were they self-sponsored. I am not saying that Ocampo did a shoddy work, neither am i saying that the PEV victims shouldn't get justice,no. All am saying is the truthh that we think we know might be a tip of the iceberg. Uhuru-Sang-Ruto-Mutahaura who have been suspected to be the faces behind the post-poll violence, may be a cog in a big machine.

WHY JUBILEE WILL BEAT CORD

I fear that Raila Odinga might lose in the March poll. Here is why; The March election will be a contest between the old generation(CORD) and the modern, otherwise digital generation(Jubilee). Majority of the voters lie in the latter's bracket in terms of age. The representation of the youth in the Cord alliance is  scanty as compared to the Jubilee alliance. The top three people in Cord(Wetang'ula, Raila and Kalonzo) are above 50 whereas the Jubilee alliance is a composition of men below the age of 50. That is a factor. Cord's sidelining of the youth is a clear indication that they do not have the interests of the youth at heart. The youth, who have the wherewithal to proppel someone to the House on the hill will be more secure in the Jubilee alliance rather than Cord.
Another factor is women representation. In the Cord's hierarchy, women are not richly represented as compared to Jubilee where Charity Ngilu is among the Jubilee's decision makers. That sends jitters down my spine. I fear that failure by Cord to respect the gender rule in its organ, will work against them in the coming general election. Women will feel that they will not have a mouthpiece in the Cord's regime as compared to that of Jubilee where they will bank their hopes on Charity Ngilu who has even included the Women Agenda in her manifesto that Uhuru-Ruto team pledged to honour.
Thirdly, those who surround Raila are a liability. Ranging from Jakoyo Midiwo to Anyang' Nyong'o, these people are known to be arrogant and not to be trusted. The way Anyang' Nyong'o has approached the issue on Nurses strike has put a stain on his managerial skills. His arrogance and threats might be a sign of a dictatorial rule. Kenyans will shy away from voting in leaders who are likely not going to listen to their pleas. Leaders who instead finding an amicable solution when there is an industrial action, use threats to compel the minors to submit. That is not where we want to go. Kenyans want a government that listens to them and acts to the good of the public. Nyong'o has watched patients suffer when the Nurses were on strike, he, instead of demonstrating good managerial skills, littered the public with threats to Nurses.
Also, the inside steak that made up ODM disintegrated into other parties. As much as i want to believe that those who made the exodus were of selfish minds, i am compelled to question the real reason. There is a Swahili saying "Ajuaye adhabu ya kaburi ni maiti"(He who knows the grave is the corpse). Those who exited did so with a motive. We cannot assume that. Something is really wrong in the Raila's camp.